Auckland: Still the Capital of Housing or Just the World’s Most Expensive Nap?
There was a time when Auckland ruled the Kiwi property game like an All Black captain at a local pub quiz.
Now? It’s starting to feel more like your mate who peaked in Year 12 and won’t stop talking about it.
So what’s going on with New Zealand’s most expensive postcode?
We asked Kelly Eckhold, chief economist at Westpac, and a man who knows more about graphs than most people know about their own children. He didn’t exactly scream optimism, but he didn’t drag out the funeral music either.
“I think at this stage, Auckland, like most of the major urban areas, is lagging a little bit behind,” Kelly said. “It’s still pretty tough times from most city dwellers’ perspectives.”
Right. That’s economist-speak for Auckland is limping through a wet paddock while Queenstown zooms past on a jet ski.
Wait… Has Auckland Lost Its Edge?
Not completely. Kelly says Auckland is benefiting from lower interest rates and we’ve seen “a bit of a pickup in prices,” but don’t get too excited. He’s not calling it a boom. He’s calling it… well, survival.
“We’ve seen a bit of a pickup in prices, but it’s hardly boom times.”
Imagine a property market with a mild fever. That’s Auckland in 2025.
Meanwhile… Canterbury and Otago Are Eating Auckland’s Lunch
Let’s talk about the South Island. While Auckland is still stretching and yawning, Canterbury and Otago have started running laps.
“You can see that employment is growing more strongly in some of those rural and tourism-based areas,” Kelly pointed out, “and in particular the South Island is a strong point there.”
Apparently tourists are arriving in Queenstown like it’s a 2019 reunion tour. It’s out of season and still packed. That’s the sound of a region cashing in while Auckland waits for a text back from the economy.
So What’s Dragging Auckland Down?
Kelly blames the labour market. And when economists say “labour market,” what they really mean is people still don’t have money to buy houses they already can’t afford.
“We’re still in the middle of what’s a pretty weak labour market, and it’s going to be a while before we see an improvement there.”
Interest rates have helped, but not enough. Auckland, the city that once sneezed and moved the entire national property market, is now stuck in bed with a lukewarm recovery and a bowl of reheated stats.
Are We Just Drowning in Too Many Houses?
Sort of. But that’s not unique to Auckland. Kelly says New Zealand always has its “leaders and laggards” in the property game.
“There’ll be parts of the country that do relatively well for a while, and then everybody else catches up. I think for Auckland, we’re waiting for the catch-up period.”
Translation: Auckland is at the back of the class, staring at the clock while Queenstown aces the test.
What Happens if Auckland Doesn’t Recover?
This is the part where most people panic and sell everything. But Kelly’s not waving the red flag yet. He still expects a recovery — just not a glamorous one.
“Unless something really bad happens, the recovery will continue. But we shouldn’t expect a boom.”
In other words, it’s going to improve. Just don’t expect fireworks and confetti. Maybe a polite nod and a modest bump in house prices.
What About Tariffs, Global Growth, and Other Terrifying Buzzwords?
Kelly acknowledges the risk. Global growth is shaky. Tariffs are making headlines. But dairy and commodity prices are holding firm.
“Dairy prices and commodity prices more generally have not fallen… indeed they’ve actually gone up a bit.”
That means there’s a chance we could dodge the worst of it. Still, don’t hold your breath. Just keep your seatbelt fastened.
Is This a Collapse or Just a Nap?
Kelly doesn’t buy the “Auckland collapse” narrative. He says it’s more about timing.
“I wouldn’t really categorize it as a collapse. It will probably increase relative to the rate of aggregate GDP growth.”
In plain English: Auckland isn’t dying. It’s just moving slower than a Wellington bus strike.
The Tourism Dividend Is Skipping Auckland
Tourists aren’t exactly flooding into Ponsonby for artisan toast. They’re heading south where the scenery is better and the crowds are smaller.
“International arrivals into Queenstown have risen quite sharply through March. That’s basically an indication there’s lots of Australians coming here for holidays.”
Meanwhile, Auckland is left holding the bill and wondering where everyone went.
Should You Buy Property Now or Wait for the Second Coming?
Kelly says lower interest rates make a good case for getting in — as long as you’re not the person overpaying at the top of the market.
“There certainly is a good case for making sure that you’re invested… although make sure you’re not paying too much.”
He’s not saying mortgage your nan. He’s saying don’t be an idiot. Rates might fall further. Or they might not. But if you’re serious, now’s not the worst time to be brave.
Who Wins if Prices Go Up?
Most people. Property price growth fuels construction, boosts spending, and makes homeowners feel rich even if they’re broke.
“When house prices are going up, householders generally feel a bit more wealthier as well, so they spend a bit more.”
Who loses? The usual suspects.
“If house prices rise relative to incomes… the people that lose are the younger people still trying to save for one.”
Kelly assures us that’s not the path we’re on this time. No runaway madness. Just a light jog back toward average.
Are We Back in FOMO Territory Yet?
Not quite. But the ingredients are there. Credit growth is rising. Listings are tightening. Days to sell is sitting at 48.
“I’ll be looking for that number to head down to perhaps the low 40s or high 30s.”
That’s when the madness resumes. That’s when people start offering $80k over asking for a house next to a train station.
OCR: Still Dropping or Bottomed Out?
Kelly still expects the OCR to land around 3.25 percent. One more cut. Then a pause. He’s watching global risks like a hawk at a mouse convention.
“With the slowdown in global growth, there is an appreciable chance now that interest rates go a bit lower than that.”
Don’t expect the Reserve Bank to rush. They’re cautious. Possibly too cautious. But at least they’re not asleep.
Are Investors Back?
They are. Slowly. Quietly. But they’re back. Kelly says the data shows clear signs of movement.
“Out of aggregate housing market credit growth, a disproportionate amount of it is being driven by the investor sector.”
Tax rules have shifted. Interest rates have dropped. The vultures are circling. Only this time, they’re wearing Lululemon and asking about yield curves.
What About First Home Buyers?
Still interested. Still trying. But not leading the charge.
“They’re still adding to credit growth, but not as strong as the investor segment.”
The real muscle right now is coming from people already on the ladder. Those trading up. Those repositioning. First home buyers are there, just not in stampede numbers.
Construction in Auckland: Asleep at the Wheel
Consents are low. Activity is down. Construction jobs are vanishing.
“Construction is actually running at pretty low levels. The construction sector is by far and away the weakest sector with respect to jobs.”
Until rates stay low long enough and developers feel brave again, it’s going to stay slow. Very slow.
Final Word: Don’t Be Late
Your competition is already subscribed. They’ve got the insight. They’ve got the edge. You’re still deciding whether this is worth your time.
It is.
“Money moves fast,” Clarkson might say. “But hesitation moves even faster — straight into poverty.”
Click subscribe. Or sit back and watch someone else buy the house you were too slow to chase.
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Forget Followers. Focus on Winning
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This Channel Wins Because Its Viewers Do
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Here’s the Truth
MortgageHQ isn’t just faster-growing. It’s smarter and sharper. It’s more honest. And it’s the only channel that’s actually designed to help Kiwis win.
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Are you watching the channel that gets results?
Or are you watching the one that’s still explaining how negative gearing works?
Tune in. Take notes. Take action.
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Before someone else uses your hesitation to beat you to it.
Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide only a summary of the issues associated with the topics covered. It does not purport to be comprehensive nor to provide specific advice. No person should act in reliance on any statement contained within this article without first obtaining specific professional advice. If you require any further information or advice on any matter covered within this article, please contact an adviser from mortgagehq.
