The NZ property market is either about to crash, boom, flatten, rebound, plateau, spike—or somehow do all of those things at once depending on which article you’re reading. That’s how it starts. A glorious mess of contradictions. Welcome to the thrilling, nerve-jangling, rage-inducing state of Kiwi real estate.
Real estate expert Dave Whitburn—who’s built a 74-property development and once plonked a minor dwelling on the back of his section—returns to do the impossible: explain what the hell is actually going on. Because frankly, someone has to. And the chaos isn’t new. It’s been bubbling like a cauldron of conflicting headlines for years now, with every economic whisper turning into a media scream. The result? A national case of property whiplash.
“We need to have a bit of confusion. We need a bit of sensationalism to make sure that we can sell some interesting things as well.”
Sensationalism is baked into the real estate ecosystem like overcooked concrete into a leaky apartment block. It’s the lubricant for headlines, the fuel for commentary, and the reason your uncle still swears prices will double by Christmas. One minute it’s panic; the next, it’s party time. As Dave notes, affordability is both improving in the NZ property market and still somehow impossible. That’s the fun of it.
“Affordability is getting better. Interest rates are coming down. Wages are slowly but surely creeping up.”
But also:
“People still can’t afford to buy.”
You’d be forgiven for thinking the entire sector is run by a committee of economists, astrologers, and improv comedians. How can everything be improving while remaining fundamentally broken? Easy. Just call it economics and hope no one asks questions.
“It’s probably not fair to say it’s gaslighting with spreadsheets… It is more economics.”
It is indeed. Economics—the dark art of appearing logical while being entirely disconnected from lived experience. And the statistics don’t lie. A full quarter of New Zealanders have credit scores so dismal they couldn’t get a bank loan to buy a used Corolla, let alone a home.
“A quarter of all Kiwis have sufficiently bad credit to not qualify for bank loans.”
That’s not a blip. That’s a systemic freeze-out. And just when people dare to dream that falling interest rates might open a door:
“Unemployment is rising. Wages are flat.”
So yes, you might now be able to afford a mortgage in the NZ property market —but only if you’re happy living in a cardboard box under the overpass because your job’s been axed. And no, that’s not an upgrade from your rental.
“That’s not going to be terribly fun for most people.”
It’s a cruel irony: mortgage calculators showing green lights while employers hand out redundancy notices. And for many, the dream of home ownership in the NZ property market comes with a cost that goes far beyond financial. First-time buyers face the steepest hill.
“Scraping together the deposit… your income’s not the best. You’re not at your peak income.”
Getting on the ladder isn’t just hard—it’s Olympic-level suffering. Every dollar hoarded feels like a betrayal of daily life. Meanwhile, boomers bark about avocado toast like that’s the sole barrier between renters and the sacred deed.
Add to this the wild card of migration. Normally, migration adds pressure to housing demand. But right now?
“Quite a few Kiwis have been leaving, particularly to Australia.”
Yep. A quiet exodus. A brain drain. People chasing opportunity or just sanity. Some come back, sure, but many don’t. And their absence shifts the housing equation in ways the headlines rarely bother to explore.
The other variable is global instability. Enter tariffs.
“I think we’ll see interest rates come down a bit further.”
Thank you, Donald Trump. Your trade war might just help Kiwis secure a better mortgage. The butterfly effect is real. What starts with pork tariffs in the U.S. ends with lower home loan repayments in Otago.
In the meantime, the NZ property market continues to throw curveballs. Wellington, once a proud bastion of stability, is now something else entirely.
“Rental falls exceeding 25% over the last 12 months.”
That’s not a soft correction. That’s a full-on belly flop into a pit of legislative uncertainty, infrastructure issues, and insurance nightmares. It’s grim—but, paradoxically, also an opportunity.
“There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with Wellington that can’t be fixed.”
Every slump invites a bounce. But only the prepared will benefit. The problem? Most people aren’t prepared. They’re confused, cautious, or clinging to advice written in 2003.
Queenstown, on the other hand, seems immune to gravity.
“It’s expensive. It’s beautiful. It has international appeal.”
Which translates to: it’s been colonised by international wealth. Local baristas are priced out of the suburbs they serve. It’s the cost of paradise, apparently. The same story plays out in Waiheke, Tauranga, and bits of the Bay of Plenty. Sand, sea, and six-figure starting prices.
Meanwhile, Christchurch and Napier offer green shoots.
“Positive cashflow should be what’s important.”
Exactly. This isn’t a time for ego buys or postcode peacocking. This is about survival. Strategy. Cold, hard numbers. Forget the myths. Forget the rules about buying within 10km of home. The goal isn’t comfort—it’s freedom.
“Maybe I don’t have to follow some book written a long time ago… that’s fake news.”
Now we’re talking. There are deals to be had. And yes, you can get help. Mentors, advisors, professionals with actual runs on the board. This isn’t guesswork anymore. It’s a financial chess game and you don’t win by reading memes.
Still, let’s not pretend we’re out of the woods. Not yet.
“We’re still rocking a 6.7 house-price-to-income ratio.”
So yes, affordability is “improving” in the NZ property market in a theoretical sense. But in practice?
“If you want to buy a home, you just need to stop eating for six years.”
That’s the definition of absurd. Especially when Auckland once hit 11:1. That wasn’t a market. That was a hostage situation.
And yet, things are softening. Slowly. Multiple borrowers are allowed. Wage inflation is crawling, and rates are edging down. It’s not a miracle. But it’s movement.
“This property downturn’s got a little bit further to go.”
Which means the smart money doesn’t wait for certainty. It moves now, ahead of the wave.
“As surely as day follows night, it will be another property boom.”
So while others waffle, hesitate, and argue on Facebook, the informed make moves. Buy well. Buy smart. Think long-term. Financial freedom isn’t a slogan. It’s a system. And like any system, it rewards timing and execution—not blind optimism.
And if you’re still hesitating:
“Your competition already subscribed. They’re locking in the profits while you’re still deciding.”
The game doesn’t wait. You either learn how to play or you get played.
The New Zealand housing market isn’t a theme park. It’s not a rollercoaster. It’s a flaming shopping trolley careening through a minefield, with three wheels missing and a real estate agent yelling “Great investment!” from the passenger seat.
But buried in the madness? Opportunities. Little golden nuggets of strategy, insight, and smart positioning. You just have to know where to look—and who to listen to.
Turn off the noise. Smash the subscribe button. And remember: financial freedom doesn’t come from waiting. It comes from acting while everyone else is still watching YouTube videos titled “Property Market Crash – End is Nigh?”
You know better now.
Welcome to the new normal.
