Is the real estate Recovery Real? ANZ Economist Henry Russell on GDP, Inflation, and the Fragile Housing Market
You know what’s crazier than an $8 flat white? Thinking the New Zealand housing market is totally fine. In the middle of economic whiplash, inflation embers, and tourists clogging Queenstown again, ANZ Economist Henry Russell sits down to give a proper reality check.
We’ve got GDP growth. We’ve got falling rates. And we’ve got investors licking their lips. But is the bounce back for real — or just another illusion designed to keep Kiwis from screaming into their fixed-term mortgage contracts?
Let’s dive in.
SECTION 1: The GDP Mirage — Real Recovery or Statistical Head Fake?
The headlines shout 7% GDP growth and declare victory over recession. But Henry’s message is clear: this recovery isn’t clean. It’s a rebound — not a rocket ship.
“The recovery certainly is real… but we’re coming off six months where the economy went backwards more than 2%.”
Translation: it’s like claiming you’re fit again because you made it up one flight of stairs after spending a week in bed. Progress? Sure. Fit? Not quite.
Even more concerning? The GDP data is, in Henry’s words, “all over the show.” Thanks to questionable seasonal adjustments and jagged volatility, it’s difficult to tell signal from noise. Yes, there’s momentum. But after the worst economic dip since the early ‘90s, we’re still in rehab.
SECTION 2: Housing — Heating Up, But It’s No 2021 Repeat
Henry calls it straight: we are not in a bubble, but we are recovering.
“We are starting to see signs that house prices are moving higher… but there’s a lot of stock on the market.”
This is no turbocharged rally. It’s more of a careful climb. 2021’s wild 50% house price surge? That was steroid-era real estate — fueled by dirt-cheap rates and stimulus splurging.
What we’re seeing now is more sustainable, more sober, and — let’s be honest — less exciting. ANZ forecasts a 6% rise in house prices over 2025. Not a boom, but a bounce. Still, that beats another year of flatlines and auction rooms echoing with crickets.
SECTION 3: The Rate Cut Relay — Target: 3%
The Reserve Bank is still very much in the driver’s seat — and it’s aiming the OCR straight at the neutral zone.
“3% is a good benchmark… it’s kind of like the Goldilocks level.”
Not too hot. Not too cold. Just right.
Rate cuts will continue, but don’t expect fireworks. The latest GDP figures weren’t a game changer, and inflation is still dragging its feet toward normality. But with spare capacity in the economy and room to grow without triggering another inflation nightmare, the RBNZ has space to keep rates drifting downward.
SECTION 4: Inflation — Still Smouldering
Sure, inflation’s headline number is 2.2%, close to the Reserve Bank’s 2% target. But dig deeper and you’ll find trouble:
“Domestic inflation is still running at 4.5%… that’s where the Reserve Bank will be focused.”
Imported inflation (the kind you blame on war, oil, and China) is calming down. But the stuff we actually control?
Still too high. Henry warns that wage stagnation, purchasing power erosion, and underlying domestic inflation are stubborn. And they could make the RBNZ cautious — even as GDP rises.
SECTION 5: Consumer Spending, Jobs, and the Real World
Despite the headlines, Kiwi consumers are still cautious. Card spending is ticking up, yes — but it’s fragile.
“Consumption is over 60% of the economy. It’s crucial.”
The labour market lags behind the broader recovery. Unemployment is projected to tick up slightly — from 5.1% to 5.3% — before improving. But the early signs of job growth are back. Monthly filled jobs data is lifting again, hinting that the worst may be behind us.
So when will Kiwis actually feel the recovery?
“Probably the second half of this year. Once the labour market adjustment is complete.”
SECTION 6: Tourism and Primary Sector — The Unsung Heroes
Here’s the surprise twist: it’s not just housing, interest rates, and inflation driving the rebound.
“Tourism has bounced back above 90% of pre-COVID levels.”
Regions tied to tourism are feeling the uplift more than cities like Wellington. But wait — there’s more.
Primary exports like dairy and meat are doing well, thanks to strong prices and a lower NZ dollar. That might mean higher costs for importers — but it’s a win for rural New Zealand, which is now quietly powering the recovery.
FINAL THOUGHT: What Investors Need to Know Now
This isn’t 2021. The sugar rush is gone. But so is the fear. What we have now is an economy in recovery, inflation in retreat, and interest rates drifting to neutral.
For property investors, that means:
- House prices are moving again
- Stock is still plentiful
- Consumer sentiment is thawing
- And the worst might be behind us
If you’re waiting for a perfect signal — you won’t get one. But the data is flashing orange, not red. And that means it’s time to position. Because when the green light hits, the ones already in gear will fly.
Henry Russell, take a bow.
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Here’s the Truth
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Are you watching the channel that gets results?
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Before someone else uses your hesitation to beat you to it.
Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide only a summary of the issues associated with the topics covered. It does not purport to be comprehensive nor to provide specific advice. No person should act in reliance on any statement contained within this article without first obtaining specific professional advice. If you require any further information or advice on any matter covered within this article, please contact an adviser from mortgagehq.
