Almost two months ago, Maurice Williamson swaggered onto this show and declared that Christopher Luxon needed to channel Donald Trump. Not a little bit. Full throttle. Grab-the-spotlight, insult-your-opponents, crush-the-media Trump. And now? The world has turned. Australia has spoken. Canada has voted. Both centre-left. Both giving a collective shrug to the idea that Trumpism wins elections.
The pundits are calling it the Trump effect. As if the ghost of Mar-a-Lago haunted the ballot boxes of Melbourne and Montreal. Maurice is back to unpack the chaos. Should Luxon be worried? Let’s put it this way. If he is not, he has not been paying attention.
Maurice still stands by his comments. Mostly. “I don’t think any one of the elections you’ve quoted have got the same characteristics,” he says. Which is politician-speak for “Let me wriggle out of this elegantly.” Canada, he claims, had its own 51st-state moment. They were being bullied..
Let’s take the issue of the 501s. Deportees from Australia. Former Kiwis with more criminal records than rental references. Maurice reckons if Luxon sorted that mess out, he would waltz back into power. “Almost win him the election,” he says. Bold. Ridiculous. Possibly true.
But why has Luxon not done it? “No leverage,” Maurice shrugs. “They say, ‘We’re not going to.’ And then the Liberals told us to go take a running jump.”
His solution? Don’t let the plane land. That’s right. Trump-style politics, Morris-style. “I’m serious,” he says. But not too serious. Even he knows that blocking planes might lead to more trouble than it’s worth. “You’d be opening up a basket of bloody mistakes.” Which, incidentally, would make a fine title for his political memoir.
The Australian public, Maurice believes, love seeing the 501s deported. “They might have gone there as a young child… but just get them out, put them on a plane, and get them home.” The Australians see them as criminals, not cousins.
He credits Albanese for one thing. Granting citizenship rights to Kiwis living in Australia. That was a win. A softening. But on the eve of an election, Albanese could not touch the 501s. “His advisers would’ve said, ‘Don’t you say a word.’” Because everything in modern politics, Maurice reminds us, is polling-driven. Real-time feedback loops. Nightly updates. “You don’t do anything unless the numbers say it’s safe.”
But shouldn’t we do what is right, not what is popular? The room goes quiet. Maurice has an answer, of course. “You might say there’s no votes in that. Is it good for the country? No. For the economy? Nope. Is there any good about keeping them here? No, Prime Minister.”
So how do you lead when doing the right thing tanks your approval rating? Slowly, says Maurice. “Slowly, slowly, catch a monkey.” It is one of his better lines. The problem is that Luxon has all the charisma of a glass of milk. The kind that expired last week.
Audrey Young gave Luxon eight out of ten. Maurice thinks that’s generous. “I’d give him a seven.” He is improving. Internationally. Domestically, not so much. His messaging needs help. His presence needs more than a dab of starch.
Two months ago, Maurice was bullish on Trump. Now? Not so much. “He’s made a potpourri of complete confusion,” he says. “Tariffs now. Then not. Maybe 150 percent. Then five. Then twenty.”
This is coming from a man who served as New Zealand’s consul-general in Los Angeles. He had a front-row seat to Trump’s first term. “Trump didn’t believe he was going to win in 2016,” Maurice says. “It was a publicity stunt.”
When half your former Cabinet says you’re unfit, it is probably time to sit the next one out. But Trump barrels on.
“I’m still not certain of what his tactics are,” Maurice admits. “America’s been paying the bills for a long time.”
On NATO, Maurice agrees with Trump. Why is the US defending Europe? “You start paying your way or we’ll stop paying ours. That’s a good message.” Possibly Trump’s only one.
Which brings us to our own spending. New Zealand just shelled out $2 billion for five helicopters. That is 2 percent of GDP. The NATO benchmark. “Is that strategic?” Maurice asks. “Five helicopters won’t save the country.”
But it’s a signal. That we are not freeloading. That we are stepping up. “We would have to surrender by afternoon if we ever went to war with China,” he says. “We wouldn’t even let them get down here before we surrendered.”
Partnerships matter. Australia, the US. That is our lifeline. Defense isn’t about winning wars. It’s about not being left out of the WhatsApp group when things get hairy.
Then we talk about charm. Luxon says he gets on well with Albanese. John Key got on with Gillard. How? Simple. “They don’t want your job,” Maurice says. “The other side of Parliament here wants your job.”
He compares politics to rugby. “The Blues don’t let the Hurricanes win just to be nice. That’s competition.”
Australia’s election? A reminder that when it comes to voting, it’s always “the economy, stupid.” Labor outplayed the Coalition on tax cuts. “They offered tax breaks, and the Coalition voted against them,” Maurice says. “Never thought I’d see the day.”
Now to a theory. Boring prime ministers are good for New Zealand. Think about it. Lange was chaotic. Then came Palmer. Clark had “a charisma bypass” and was brilliant. “Key was quirky but not too much.”
Maurice thinks Luxon fits the mould. “Little charisma. But it’s working.” Why? Because underneath, a cabinet full of nerds are getting stuff done. That is what matters. “The Prime Minister can be chairman of the board.”
Then comes the budget. May 22. Maurice has seen many. He was there for the 1991 “mother of all budgets.” This one? “Even less room to move.”
Nicola Willis has $1.3 billion in operating allowance. Eighty-one portfolios to fund. Debt repayments chewing through everything. “The cupboard isn’t just bare. It’s stacked with IOUs.”
Health is a bottomless pit. Double the spend and someone still misses surgery. Education? Same. “There won’t be a lolly scramble. Maybe a clawback.”
Labour will promise the world. But Maurice wonders if the public still falls for it. “Trump says stuff that means absolutely nothing. You know he’s lying. But it works.”
Finally, Winston. The enigma. Not deputy PM for long. “He has to differentiate,” Maurice says. And he will. On Māori policy, crime, and education. On the Treaty. “He gets support from Māori who believe in hard work, not handouts.”
In 1996, NZ First won every Māori seat. That shocked everyone. It could happen again. “He picks up centre-right voters too,” Maurice notes. “He will hold the line.”
Deputy or not, Winston gets things done if he has the numbers. That is all that counts.
And with that, the show wraps. Maurice leaves, stage right, still convinced that Trumpism has its uses. Just not the hair. Or the diet.
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Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide only a summary of the issues associated with the topics covered. It does not purport to be comprehensive nor to provide specific advice. No person should act in reliance on any statement contained within this article without first obtaining specific professional advice. If you require any further information or advice on any matter covered within this article, please contact an adviser from mortgagehq.
